Is anyone up for a dose of optimism? Do we even remember what that feels like?

The current assumption among furious Democrats (and probably a furious American majority) is that Trump henchman Mitch McConnell and most of his minions will soil the legacy of RBG by rushing a new right-winger onto the Supreme Court before the election or in a lame-duck vote after the election. There’s nothing in the law or Constitution to stop an impeached pandemic president from yanking his puppets’ strings. The forces of darkness have won so often that who’s to say it won’t happen again?

But maybe it won’t happen. Call me crazy, but it seems that the Republican calculations are a tad more complicated than they first appear. In a matter of weeks, I could be proven foolish, but just in case I’m proven wise, remember that you heard it here.

In the words of conservative commentator and Trump critic David Frum, “McConnell has gotten his way so often that it’s hard to imagine he might ever lose. But the political balance of power is shifting this fall, and for once, McConnell may be on the wrong side of a power dynamic.”

With his 53-47 majority, McConnell can only afford to lose three senators in a confirmation vote; any further defections would thwart Mike Pence from breaking a 50-50 tie. Mitt Romney and Lisa Murkowski have already suggested that they’ll oppose any pre-election confirmation vote. Susan Collins, Cory Gardner, and Thom Tillis – all of whom are imperiled in their Maine, Colorado, and North Carolina re-election races – may face enormous pressure to say No. The last thing they need is to give galvanized Democratic voters (plus swing independent voters who fear the loss of abortion rights and Obamacare) another big reason to throw them out.

If Trump is smart (please, no jokes), he’d postpone his pick until after the election, when he’ll still hold office and the lame-duck Republicans will still hold the Senate. Because if he pushes for an RBG replacement in the next six weeks, he himself could wind up victimized by a stoked Democratic turnout in the red states he badly needs – most notably Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida.

And what happens if Joe Biden wins and the Democrats take the Senate (both real possibilities)? Would McConnell still have magical powers if he’s presiding over a doomed Republican caucus? Perhaps Lamar Alexander of Tennessee and Pat Roberts of Kansas would become No votes; they’re retiring anyway, they reportedly care about the Senate as an institution, and they may not want to end their careers as Trump rubber-stamps. They’re leaving anyway, so their fear of angry Trump tweets would be nil.

One more wrinkle: It appears that Arizona Democratic candidate Mark Kelly will stomp incumbent Martha McSally on Nov. 3. Because McSally was appointed to the office, this is actually a special election. And because it’s a special election, the certified winner – probably Kelly – could be sworn into office as early as Nov. 30. Which means that in a lame-duck vote to replace RBG, Trump’s allies could likely afford to lose only two senators.

Indeed, if Democrats do win back the White House and Senate, they’d be smart to confront lame-duck McConnell with a naked threat. If he tries to fill RBG’s seat, they should retaliate in ’21 by expanding the federal judiciary. Jeffrey Toobin, the longtime legal analyst, explains it well: “Congress should pass a law expanding the number of lower-court federal judges; that number has not increased since Jimmy Carter was President. Finally, the greatest and most appropriate form of retribution involves the Supreme Court itself. The number of Justices is not fixed in the Constitution but, rather, established by statute. If Republicans (fill RGB’s seat), Democrats could simply pass a law that creates two or three more seats on the Supreme Court. To do so would be to play hardball in a way that is foreign to the current Senate Democrats. But maybe, in light of all that’s happened, that’s a game they should learn to play.”

Hardball is long overdue. By the way, it’s nice for a change to see Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents getting worked up about a Supreme Court vacancy. Unlike conservatives, they’ve rarely prioritized the future of the high court as a voting issue. Even in 2016, when McConnell consigned Obama nominee Merrick Garland to limbo, they still didn’t focus on the court (because they thought Hillary Clinton was meh, or whatever). But now, finally, on the eve of balloting, when it’s almost too late, they’ve seen the light.

Perhaps this is merely my Pollyanna moment. On the other hand, it was Martin Luther King who once said, “Only when it is dark enough can you see the stars.”