With each passing day, as Vladimir Putin flexes his pecs and puts the squeeze on Ukraine, it’s ever more glaringly obvious why he and his military intelligence trolls worked so hard in 2016 to help put their own stooge in the White House. You don’t need an international affairs PhD to connect the dots.
Putin, stoked by his dream of recreating some sort of Russian empire, has been playing the long game. To grease his path to greatness, he needed a compliant American president whom he could buy; Trump was perfect, because his businesses, and his hopes for a Moscow hotel, hinged on Russian money.
Putin also knew that he’d have more geopolitical room to maneuver if NATO was somehow weakened; Trump dutifully assailed NATO over and over, seeking to weaken it. Heck, he started hauling Putin’s water on that issue long before he won in ’16.
Putin also needed an American president who would screw with America’s military aid to Ukraine; Trump dutifully held it up for months, as punishment for the Ukraine president’s refusal to concoct fake campaign dirt about Joe Biden.
Putin also sought to weaken America’s international resolve by sowing pro-Putin propaganda within one of our political parties. That long-term project is basically Mission Accomplished. Trump himself may be in exile, but the GOP features a noisome Trumpist faction that parrots whatever Putin says. As longtime Republican strategist Stuart Stevens laments, “In modern history of western democracies, there has never been such a successful infiltration of a major party by a hostile foreign power.”
The fate of a nascent democracy on Russia’s border means nothing to the right-wing appeasers who are in thrall to an imperialist dictator. Here’s Tucker Carlson, in what passes for deep thought: “Why would we take Ukraine’s side and not Russia’s side?…Why is it disloyal to side with Russia but loyal to side with Ukraine? They’re both foreign countries that don’t care anything about the United States.” (Reality is a tad more nuanced. Ukraine is strategically crucial as a barrier between Russia and the rest of Europe; and in 1994, America formally promised Ukraine that it would be protected if Russia tried to invade.) Here’s Republican congressman Paul Gosar: “We have no dog in the Ukraine fight.” Here’s Republican senatorial candidate J. D. Vance, who says that Biden is picking on Putin because Putin “doesn’t believe in transgender rights.” (I don’t think that’s the issue.)
I’m old enough to remember when virtually all Republicans were bullish on NATO, tough on Russia, and unified in their determination to defend democracies abroad. For generations that was the party brand. But alas, today’s appeasers have tied their Trump armbands so tight that they’re cutting off oxygen to their brains.
No wonder Putin has felt so emboldened to mobilize for war. The only hitch is that he didn’t anticipate that his toady, Trump, would lose his re-election bid and be replaced by an adult with actual foreign policy experience, someone with the know-how to rally unity among our western allies. As Homer Simpson would say, “D’OH!”
Former American ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder says, “Whatever happens in Ukraine, Biden has done a superb job forging a united opposition to Russia. Intense diplomacy, unprecedented (intelligence) information sharing, leaving room for other leaders to engage Putin, and clear strategic communications all add up to western unity.” Retired four-star General Wesley Clark, another former NATO official, tweets: “The Biden strategy is working. Putin seems perplexed; his false-flag pretexts for invasion? Exposed! NATO? Increasingly unified! Ukraine? Determined and resilient! Not too late for Putin to withdraw, and be happy to survive the crisis he created.”
And Fiona Hill, the Russia specialist who served presidents of both parties starting with George W. Bush, and who famously eviscerated Trump during the first impeachment hearings, told CNN the other day that Trump had lulled Putin into believing that “Ukraine was a playground” ripe for the picking…Not once did I see (Trump) do anything to put America first. Not once. Not a single second.” But now the ground has shifted: “(The Russians) might have thought we were going to crumble, and we didn’t.”
Granted, there are no guarantees that Putin will back down. Short of a full invasion, he could devote many weeks to tightening the screws and trying to grind down the western allies’ resolve. As Washington Post columnist David Ignatius, a national security specialist, warned yesterday, “NATO’s unity is indeed an achievement, but war is always a failure.” Let’s merely be thankful that if some version of the worst does happen, at least Trump won’t be in office to bless it.