To fully comprehend the farcical status of our imperiled democracy at the start of this profoundly consequential election year, we need only look at what’s likely to happen tomorrow in Iowa, where a fractional sliver of the state’s voters – mostly right-wing Christians who supposedly revere God and goodness – will slog through snow, ice, and plummeting wind chill temps to caucus in person for a serial-lying felonious criminal defendant who has already been found liable for rape and financial fraud.

It’s a sick fluke of history that Iowa goes first on the primary season calendar (it all started with Jimmy Carter, if you care), and I’ll confess there were times when I joined the journalistic horde and hung out in dreary Des Moines, driving three hours to East Nowhere for rallies, pretending that great truths could be extracted from the tiny caucus tallies. Remember President Ted Cruz? I don’t either, but he won the 2016 Republican caucus. Remember President Rick Santorum? I don’t either, but he won Iowa in 2012. Remember President Mike Huckabee? I don’t either, but he won Iowa in 2008. Remember President Bob Dole? I don’t either, but he won Iowa in 1988.

Donald Trump, a fixture of federal and state courtrooms, hopes to break that pattern. He’s widely expected to notch a solid win in Iowa tomorrow – Step One in his master plan to camp in the White House instead of a jail cell – and indeed he’ll be propelled to victory by Iowans like Susanne Olsen, a 58-year-old lady who this weekend was quoted in the press as saying (I swear she actually said this), “President Trump has never lied to us one time.”

MAGA super-fans like her are the folks most likely to brave the elements and declare their allegiance in person, as required by the caucus rules. MAGA-lite Ron DeSantis seems likely to finish third (if so, he’s toast), which means that Nikki Haley, who’s likely to finish second, would be the sole survivor of the Republican winnowing process, and a potential spoiler in the New Hampshire primary nine days from now. She’s MAGA-lite, too – she says that if Trump is the nominee as a convicted felon, she’d vote for him anyway; and we all know she’d crawl through broken glass to be his running mate – but she could be buoyed in New Hampshire by cross-over independent and Democratic voters who are desperate to thwart the aspiring fascist.

But unless I’m hopefully wrong, the Republican script is already etched in stone.

Even if Haley scores a major upset in New Hampshire, she’s projected to lose the next key race on the calendar, in her home state of South Carolina. She was a tough-minded governor, but the evangelical Christians love thrice-married Trump and rural conservatives lap up his lies. Pundit David Brooks writes, “Trump and the woman who is now his leading challenger are different versions of a bare-knuckled ethos, and if you look at their records, it’s pretty clear that Haley is actually more effectively tough than Trump. She’s confrontational in pursuit of policy, whereas he is confrontational in pursuit of ratings. She’s a doer; his attention span isn’t long enough to make him an effective executive. If Republicans want someone who will execute their agenda, they should go with her” – but “no amount of Nikki Haley toughness” can break Trump’s bond with the MAGA masses.

Then comes Super Tuesday on March 5, where Haley will likely get “smoked” – to borrow Chris Christie’s verb – in 15 states coast to coast, courtesy of Trump’s monetary and celebrity advantages. (In America, an adjudicated rapist, fraudster, and insurrectionist is a celebrity. Just like in ’20s Chicago, where Al Capone was a celebrity.) The delegates that Trump accrues on Super Tuesday will likely put him on a glide path to party coronation, no matter what Jack Smith or a federal jury says.

The real action will happen next fall, when Americans outside the dystopian MAGA bubble get their say on the character of their presidential candidates. There is reason to hope that electoral sanity will prevail. According to a new national poll, 56 percent of Americans support the criminal charges lodged against Trump; in today’s polarized climate, 56 percent is tantamount to a landslide. And in a December national poll, 59 percent of voters -including 31 percent of Republicans – said they won’t support him if he’s convicted of a felony. (No wonder the guy is desperate to postpone his trials until after the election.)

So that’s my nutshell assessment at the dawn of this race. Way back when I trekked to Iowa, I’d write tens of thousands of words on what would/could happen in that frozen tundra and beyond. How sweet it is now to stay warm and far away, to wrap it all up in a mere 800 words. Rest assured, this is all you need to read in advance of Iowa. And lest you be tempted tomorrow to breathlessly watch the results, I recommend the Emmys.